The ability of bilirubin in identifying smokers with higher risk of lung cancer: a large cohort study in conjunction with global metabolomic profiling.

PURPOSE We aimed to identify serum metabolites as potential valuable biomarkers for lung cancer and to improve risk stratification in smokers. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN We performed global metabolomic profiling followed by targeted validation of individual metabolites in a case-control design of 386 lung cancer cases and 193 matched controls. We then validated bilirubin, which consistently showed significant differential levels in cases and controls, as a risk marker for lung cancer incidence and mortality in a large prospective cohort composed of 425,660 participants. RESULTS Through global metabolomic profiling and following targeted validation, bilirubin levels consistently showed a statistically significant difference among healthy controls and lung cancer cases. In the prospective cohort, the inverse association was only seen in male smokers, regardless of smoking pack-years and intensity. Compared with male smokers in the highest bilirubin group (>1 mg/dL), those in the lowest bilirubin group (<0.75 mg/dL) had 55% and 66% increase in risks of lung cancer incidence and mortality, respectively. For every 0.1 mg/dL decrease of bilirubin, the risks for lung cancer incidence and mortality increased by 5% and 6% in male smokers, respectively (both P < 0.001). There was a significant interaction between low serum bilirubin level and smoking on lung cancer risk (Pinteraction = 0.001). CONCLUSION Low levels of serum bilirubin are associated with higher risks of lung cancer incidence and mortality in male smokers and can be used to identify higher risk smokers for lung cancer.